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2018 Dutch Intelligence and Security Services Act referendum

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2018 Dutch Intelligence and Security Services Act referendum
21 March 2018
Are you for or against the Intelligence and Security Services Act 2017?
Results
Choice
 Votes %
For 3,122,628 46.53%
Against 3,317,496 49.44%
Blank votes 270,288 4.03%
Valid votes 6,710,412 99.65%
Invalid votes 23,813 0.35%
Total votes 6,734,225 100.00%
Eligible to vote/turnout 13,064,932 51.54%
Results by municipality

  For
  Against

An advisory referendum on the Intelligence and Security Services Act 2017 (Dutch: Wet op de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten 2017, abbreviated 'Wiv') was held in the Netherlands on 21 March 2018, alongside the municipal elections. It was the second referendum to be held under the Dutch Advisory Referendum Act after the 2016 Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement referendum.

A plurality of voters (49.44%) voted against the law, resulting in its rejection. Voter turnout was 51.5%, above the 30% threshold for validation of the result.[1] As with the previous referendum, the referendum created a no-show paradox, where the 46.5% of voters who turned out to vote for the bill instead causing its rejection, by helping the referendum meet the quota. If voters who cast for ballots had instead refused to show up, the turnout of 27.5% would have been insufficient for the result to be declared valid.

Although the referendum itself was non-binding, Prime Minister Mark Rutte had promised to take a potential "no" vote into account prior to the referendum,[2] but

Background

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The draft Intelligence and Security Agencies Act 2017 was laid before the States General by the Government of the Netherlands at the end of 2016. On 14 February 2017, a majority in the House of Representatives voted in support of the act,[3] which was then approved in the Senate on 11 July.[4][5]

Request

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Stage Required Received Valid
Preliminary requests 10,000 19,266 17,162[6]
Definitive requests 300,000 417,354 384,126[7]

A campaign to obtain sufficient support declarations for a referendum was initiated by a group of students at the University of Amsterdam concerned about the sweeping surveillance powers granted to the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) under the law.[5] On 1 November 2017, the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) announced that a sufficient number of signatures had been collected to trigger an advisory referendum on the tapping law, with 384,126 valid signatures, over 92 percent of those collected, well above the 300,000 required for a referendum.[8]

Party positions

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The referendum comes after the formation of the Third Rutte cabinet following the 2017 general election,[8] with the coalition divided whether to hold a referendum on the law, Democrats 66 (D66) being the only one of the four coalition parties that voted against disregarding the result ahead of the referendum.[9]

The party positions listed below are based on the vote of the law in the House of Representatives on 14 February 2017, with the exception of Forum for Democracy (FvD), which was not represented in the lower chamber before the 2017 general election.[10]

Party Current seats Position
VVD People's Party for Freedom and Democracy
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
33 / 150
 For
PVV Party for Freedom
Partij voor de Vrijheid
20 / 150
 For*
CDA Christian Democratic Appeal
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
19 / 150
 For
D66 Democrats 66
Democraten 66
19 / 150
 For
GL GreenLeft
GroenLinks
14 / 150
 Against
SP Socialist Party
Socialistische Partij
14 / 150
 Against
PvdA Labour Party
Partij van de Arbeid
9 / 150
 For
CU Christian Union
ChristenUnie
5 / 150
 For
PvdD Party for the Animals
Partij voor de Dieren
5 / 150
 Against
50+ 50PLUS
4 / 150
 For
SGP Reformed Political Party
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
3 / 150
 For
DENK Denk
3 / 150
 Against
FvD Forum for Democracy
Forum voor Democratie
2 / 150
 Against

* PVV announced that even though they voted in favor, they would respect the outcome of the referendum.

Opinion polls

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Vote in referendum

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Polling firm Date For Against Don't know Will not vote Lead
Ipsos 20 Mar 2018 53 34 13 – 19
I&O Research 12 Mar 2018 51 30 19 – 21
Peil.nl 11 Mar 2018 45 42 13 – 3
Kantar Public 4 Mar 2018 35 24 26 15 10
Ipsos 26 Feb 2018 48 32 20 – 16
I&O Research 6 Feb 2018 42 28 30 – 14
Kantar Public 28 Jan 2018 32 22 30 16 10
Peil.nl 3 Dec 2017 40 60 – – 20
I&O Research[permanent dead link‍] 30 Oct 2017 52 32 17 – 20
I&O Research 9 Oct 2017 50 30 20 – 20
I&O Research 11 Sep 2017 60 24 17 – 36

Support for the law

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Polling firm Date For Against Don't know Lead
GfK 31 Oct 2017 34 53 13 19
GfK 23 Oct 2017 40 49 11 9

Results

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Results by province
ChoiceVotes%
For3,122,62846.53
Against3,317,49649.44
Blank270,2884.03
Total6,710,412100.00
Valid votes6,710,41299.65
Invalid votes23,8130.35
Total votes6,734,225100.00
Registered voters/turnout13,064,93251.54
Source: Kiesraad

Results by province or territory

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Province or territory Electorate Voter turnout In favour Against Blank
Votes % Votes % Votes %
 Drenthe 387,611 54.16 99,787 47.72 100,850 48.23 8,472 4.05
 Flevoland 297,206 50.28 67,377 45.24 77,168 51.81 4,390 2.95
 Friesland 504,855 42.80 97,594 45.30 111,049 51.55 6,779 3.15
 Gelderland 1,602,016 54.19 415,207 48.01 411,924 47.63 37,737 4.36
 Groningen 458,131 37.22 61,200 35.97 105,009 61.72 3,916 2.30
 Limburg 873,201 50.23 206,901 47.33 209,891 48.02 20,310 4.65
 North Brabant 1,947,973 48.43 469,115 49.90 430,932 45.84 40,032 4.26
 North Holland 2,075,436 52.87 453,840 41.51 598,606 54.75 40,927 3.74
 Overijssel 882,344 56.92 247,309 49.41 230,930 46.14 22,311 4.46
 Utrecht 969,421 57.65 253,208 45.46 278,935 50.08 24,863 4.46
 Zeeland 291,514 56.70 88,950 54.02 69,174 42.01 6,536 3.97
 South Holland 2,760,065 51.22 661,822 47.00 692,443 49.17 54,009 3.84
Caribbean Netherlands 15,159 6.06 318 34.98 585 64.36 6 0.66
Source: Kiesraad

References

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  1. ^ Results referendum on Wiv: majority against Kiesraad
  2. ^ "Dutch referendum: Spy tapping powers 'rejected'". BBC. 22 March 2018. Retrieved 28 March 2018.
  3. ^ "Tweede Kamer stemt voor 'aftapwet' inlichtingendiensten". Algemeen Dagblad. 14 February 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  4. ^ "Nieuwe Wet op de inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten is een feit". Algemene Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst. 11 July 2017. Archived from the original on 7 November 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  5. ^ a b "Raadgevend referendum over 'aftapwet' komt er". NOS. 1 November 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  6. ^ "Inleidend verzoek referendum over Wiv toegelaten". Kiesraad. 1 September 2017. Retrieved 2 November 2017.
  7. ^ "Referendum over Wiv gaat door". Kiesraad. 1 November 2017. Retrieved 2 November 2017.
  8. ^ a b "Nederland gaat stemmen over 'sleepwet'". Trouw. 1 November 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  9. ^ Lennart Zandbergen (28 October 2017). "CDA en D66 oneens over betekenis referendum 'sleepwet'". Het Financieele Dagblad. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  10. ^ Referendum over sleepwet (PDF) (Report). I&O Research. 12 October 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
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